“First forecasts for the 2013 wheat harvest point to production increasing to 690 million tonnes – 4.3 per cent up on 2012,” according to FAO’s quarterly ‘Crop Prospects and Food Situation’ report.

“This would be the second largest crop on record,” FAO noted in a press release, below the record harvest of 700 million tonnes in 2011.

The hike is expected mostly in Europe, driven by an expansion in wheat planting areas in response to high prices and a recovery in yields from Russia and some other countries, FAO said.

The outlook in the United States, dampened by earlier drought conditions, has improved somewhat, the UN agency said.

Coarse grains and paddy crops are not yet planted making it too early for even a preliminary global cereal forecast, but FAO expects “generally favourable” prospects for the first 2013 coarse grain crops in the southern hemisphere. Rice prospects are also encouraging in several countries below the equator.

The report also surveyed the food security situations in developing countries, including several hotspots. Of the countries cited, FAO noted that insecurity in northern Mali has disrupted food commodity flows worsening an “already precarious” food situation created by a drought in 2011.

Meanwhile, FAO’s Food Price Index – which measures monthly changes in international prices of a basket of meat, dairy, cereals, oils and fats, and sugar – remained at 210 points for a second straight month.

The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped less than 1 per cent to 245 points in February, but still 8 per cent higher than last year at this time.

Prices for oils and fats averaged 206 points, up 0.4 per cent from January. The rise was driven mainly by palm oil, reflecting the expected seasonal production slowdown and reduction in inventories.

Dairy prices rose five points, or 2.4 per cent, to 203 points. Meat prices averaged 178, the same as in January, with marginally higher pork prices offsetting a slight dip in poultry.

Sugar prices declined for a fourth consecutive month on the expectation of a relatively large world production surplus. The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 259 in February, down 3 per cent, or 8.6 points, from January.

Speaking at a week-long meeting of the World Cooperatives Congress in Manchester, England, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Director-General, José Graziano da Silva, told gathered delegates that cooperatives can help small- and medium-scale farmers and fishermen add value to their production and gain access to wider markets.

“Cooperatives follow core values and principles that are critical to doing business in an equitable manner, that seeks to empower and benefits its members and the community it is inserted in,” said Graziano da Silva.

“This is especially relevant in poor rural communities, where joining forces is central to promoting sustainable local development,” he added.

Graziano da Silva stated that in a world that produces enough food for all and despite gains in the fight against hunger, it was “unacceptable” that close to 870 million people continue to suffer from chronic malnutrition. He further stated that greater cooperativization would help reduce hunger and poverty across poor rural communities.

“Whether you are in the UK, Brazil, Kenya, Thailand, or Nepal, cooperatives help to generate employment, boost national economies and reduce poverty,” he noted. “This, in turn, helps to improve food security.”

The FAO chief emphasized that his agency was committed to fostering the growth of agricultural cooperatives around the world and hinted at the appointment of special ambassadors for cooperatives to promote the issue, as well as develop approaches, guidelines, methodologies and training tools on organizational development and policy.

Moreover, he called on those gathered to contribute to the global plan of action expected to emerge from events held in honour of the International Year of Cooperatives – a year-long celebration currently being observed in 2012.

Carried out by the UN World Food Programme (WFP), the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Syria’s Minister of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform in June, the Joint Rapid Food Security Needs Assessment mission’s report stresses that out of the three million Syrians in need of assistance, 1.5 million are in urgent need of food aid over the next three to six months, especially in areas that have seen the greatest conflict and population displacement.

Syria has been wracked by violence, with more than 10,000 people, mostly civilians, killed since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began some 16 months ago. Over recent days, there have been reports of an escalation in violence in many towns and villages, as well as the country’s two biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo.

The joint mission’s report estimates that Syria’s agricultural sector has lost $1.8 billion as a result of the ongoing conflict. The crisis has led to damage to crops, livestock and irrigation systems. Basic crops such as wheat and barley have been badly affected, as well as cherry and olive trees and vegetable production.

“While the economic implications of these losses are quite grave, the humanitarian implications are far more pressing,” said WFP’s Representative in Syria, Muhannad Hadi. “The effects of these major losses are first, and most viciously, felt by the poorest in the country. Most of the vulnerable families the mission visited reported less income and more expenditure – their lives becoming more difficult by the day.”

The assessment mission’s report also notes that large numbers of rural people of Syria’s central, coastal, eastern, north-eastern and southern governorates were found to have totally or partially lost their farming assets and livestock-based livelihoods and businesses, due to the ongoing political crisis and insecurity, combined with a prolonged drought.

“The most vulnerable families in Syria depend entirely or partly on agriculture and farm animals for food and income. They need emergency support, like seeds, repairs to irrigation systems, animal feed and healthcare,” said the FAO Representative in Syria, Abdulla BinYehia. “If timely assistance is not provided, the livelihood system of these vulnerable people could simply collapse in a few months’ time. Winter is fast approaching and urgent action is needed before then.”

Living conditions for farmers have become increasingly difficult, according to the assessment mission, with farmers being forced to leave crops unattended due to unavailability of labour, rise in fuel costs, insecurity and power cuts affecting water supply, augmenting the risk of losing crops if assistance is not provided.

Close to one million people are in need of seeds, food for animals, fuel and repair of irrigations pumps, the assessment says, stressing that particular attention needs to be given to female-headed households, migrant workers and small farmers.

WFP’s Hadi said that during the assessment mission’s visit to Al Hassakeh governorate in the country’s north-east, “even the richest family in a village reported having food stock for only one more month.”

WFP announced that it would scale up its emergency operation for Syria, which began in October, to reach 850,000 people this month and access badly affected areas. However, the operation is still facing a funding shortfall of about $62 million out of an overall budget of $103 million.

Meanwhile, FAO, which has provided assistance to some 82,000 people since December, aims to reach 900,000 people in rural households over the next six months to ensure they can continue planting and keeping their livestock. A budget of $38 million will be required for this, the agency said.

“The situation is very serious – our field staff have observed that households in parts of the country have harvested almost nothing,” said WFP Country Director Abdoulaye Diop. “Our first priority will be to make sure that vulnerable people have enough food to sustain themselves through this lean season. At the same time, we must invest in more long-term solutions to build resilience and break the cycle of hunger.”

According to a recent report jointly produced by the Government, UN agencies, and academic and non-governmental organizations, more than 1.6 million people will need food assistance in the coming months, a substantial increase from earlier this year when 202,000 people were in need of food assistance.

While the lean season in Malawi is usually between December and March, a late onset of rain and prolonged dry spells resulted in a decrease of maize production by as much as 40 per cent in some areas. The effects will be felt the most in the southern part of the country.

In addition, the recent devaluation of the national currency by 49 per cent, coupled with soaring inflation at 17.3 per cent, has produced sharp increases in the prices of basic goods and services, pushing the cost of living to unsustainable levels for many Malawians.

Retail maize prices have already increased by 50 per cent compared to the same time last year, and are expected to increase in the lean season.

WFP, along with the Government and other partners, will distribute locally produced maize, pulses and blended food. Cash transfers may also be made available to the most vulnerable to enable them to buy food in areas where market conditions allow.

The agency is urging donors to provide rapid funding support to assist more than one million people starting from August, covering the period until March 2013.

In a news release WFP said its emergency intervention will be implemented in tandem with medium- and longer-term assistance, including school meals, programmes to boost the nutrition of malnourished children and mothers, and resilience-building activities to address chronic food insecurity and disaster risk reduction.

“Climate Change, Vulnerability and Human Mobility,” based on discussions with around 150 refugees and internally displaced people in Ethiopia and Uganda in 2011, is published by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the UN University (UNU).

“This report confirms what we have been hearing for years from refugees,” said the High Commissioner for Refugees, António Guterres, who introduced the report while attending the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

“They did everything they could to stay at home, but when their last crops failed, their livestock died, they had no option but to move; movement which often led them into greater harm’s way,” he stated.

Most of those interviewed for the report, which was produced with the support of the London School of Economics and Bonn University, were farmers and pastoralists from Eritrea, Somalia and eastern Sudan. They were asked questions about the extent to which climate change contributed to their decision to leave their homes, and, eventually, their countries.

Most refugees reported that leaving their homes was a last resort and their first displacement was temporary and to an area close to home, according to a news release on the report.

The majority fled their countries after the areas they moved to were affected by insecurity or a lethal combination of violence and drought. “Cross-border movement, as a direct response to climate change, was exceptional,” the news release noted.

While many refugees described disrupted rainfall patterns in the past decade, with longer and more severe droughts than in previous years, none cited these negative shifts in weather as a direct catalyst for violent conflict, according to the report.

Some did, however, speak about the scarcity of food and crops after severe drought as exacerbating pre-existing conflicts, persecution and repression.

While most people displaced solely as a result of extreme weather conditions stay within their national borders, those that cross international borders are not necessarily covered by the 1951 UN Refugee Convention – the treaty that forms the legal foundation on which UNHCR’s work is based.

The Convention, adopted to resolve the refugee problem in Europe after the Second World War, provides a definition of who qualifies as a refugee – a person with a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion – and spells out the rights and obligations between host countries and refugees.

The Nansen Initiative, due to be formally launched in October 2012 by Norway and Switzerland, with the support of UNHCR and the Norwegian Refugee Council, aims to address this legal and protection gap for people displaced across borders owing to environmental change and extreme weather events.

“I am convinced that climate change will increasingly be a driver in worsening displacement crises in the world,” said Mr. Guterres. “It is very important for the world to come together to respond to this challenge.”