The new national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 1 among 1,000 adults, finds that Obama has significant ground to make up in his own party. Just 29% of Democrats favor conducting airstrikes against Syria while 48% are opposed. Opinion among independents is similar (29% favor, 50% oppose). Republicans are more divided, with 35% favoring airstrikes and 40% opposed.

The public has long been skeptical of U.S. involvement in Syria, but an April survey found more support than opposition to the idea of a U.S.-led military response if the use of chemical weapons was confirmed. The new survey finds both broad concern over the possible consequences of military action in Syria and little optimism it will be effective.

Three-quarters (74%) believe that U.S. airstrikes in Syria are likely to create a backlash against the United States and its allies in the region and 61% think it would be likely to lead to a long-term U.S. military commitment there. Meanwhile, just 33% believe airstrikes are likely to be effective in discouraging the use of chemical weapons; roughly half (51%) think they are not likely to achieve this goal.

However, most believe Assad is guilty of using chemical weapons; 53% say there is clear evidence that the Syrian government used them against civilians there while just 23% say there is no clear evidence of a chemical attack. While those who think the evidence is clear offer modestly more support for airstrikes, even here as many oppose as support U.S. military involvement (41% each).

A Third Say Obama Has Made Case for Airstrikes

Overall, just 32% of Americans say Obama has explained clearly why the U.S. should launch military airstrikes against Syria while 48% say he has not explained the reasons clearly enough.

Although Democrats tend to oppose airstrikes against Syria, they give higher marks than Republicans to Obama for making the case for military action.

About half of Democrats (52%) say Obama has clearly explained reasons for conducting airstrikes in Syria, while 33% say he has not. Majorities of Republicans (60%) and independents (54%) say he has not explained the rationale for airstrikes clearly enough.

Most independents (58%) and Republicans (54%) also say that U.S. airstrikes in Syria are not likely to be effective in discouraging the use of chemical weapons. Democrats are more closely divided – nearly as many say they will not be effective (40%) in achieving this goal as say they will (46%).

There is less disagreement over other possible consequences of military action: Majorities of Republicans (77%), independents (77%) and Democrats (71%) say U.S. airstrikes are likely to create an anti-U.S. backlash in the region, while smaller majorities in all three groups also say they are likely to lead to a long U.S. commitment in Syria.

Gender Gap over Syrian Airstrikes

Men are twice as likely as women to favor U.S. military airstrikes against Syria. Among men, nearly as many favor (39%) as oppose (46%) the proposed military action. Among women, just 19% support airstrikes, while 49% are opposed. Women are more uncertain about what to do at this point – 31% offer no opinion compared with just 15% of men.

There are few other major demographic differences of opinion: for example, young and old, college graduates and those with no college offer similar levels of support and opposition.

Support for military airstrikes runs somewhat higher among those who have followed the story the most closely: 37% of those who say they have tracked news about the possibility of airstrikes “very closely” favor airstrikes compared with just 21% of those who say they have followed “not too” or “not at all” closely. Yet opposition to the idea is prevalent regardless of people’s level of interest – nearly half oppose airstrikes among the most and least attentive segments of the public.

Those who see clear evidence of chemical weapons use by Syria – and those who say Obama has clearly explained reasons for using military force – are divided over whether the U.S. should conduct airstrikes. Among the 53% of Americans who say there is clear evidence the Syrian government used chemical weapons against civilians, opinion is split evenly as to whether the U.S. should (41%) or should not (41%) conduct airstrikes. Among the 32% who say Obama has explained clearly why the U.S. should launch airstrikes, 42% favor doing so, while 38% remain opposed.

The Week’s News

Roughly four-in-ten (39%) followed news about potential U.S. airstrikes in Syria “very closely.” The percentage following news about Syria very closely has approximately doubled from recent weeks, when no more than about 20% tracked Syrian developments very closely, including earlier charges this year that the government used chemical weapons.

Americans paid more attention to the Syrian developments than other stories this week, including news about the health care laws (23% very closely), wildfires in California (20%) and the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington (20%). About one-in-ten (9%) very closely followed the news about the NFL’s agreement with former players about concussion-related lawsuits.

“We support the calls of the Secretary-General for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and his demand that both sides should do everything to avoid further escalation and must respect their obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure the protection of civilians at all times,” the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) added in a news release.

In addition to calling for an immediate de-escalation earlier this week, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also condemned attacks by Palestinian militants targeting Israel and called on Israel to exercise maximum restraint.

The new wave of violence in Gaza and southern Israel has resulted in several people being killed or wounded on both sides.

UNRWA has over one million beneficiaries in Gaza, where, earlier Thursday, one of its staff members was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the north.

The relief agency said that reports indicate that Marwan Abu El Qumsan – an Arabic teacher in his fifties at UNRWA’s Preparatory Boys School in the city of Jabalia, in northern Gaza – was in a car near the scene of an air strike at the time of his death; his brother, who was with him in the car, was severely injured. UNRWA also expressed its condolences over El Qumsum’s death.

Separately, an UNWRA spokesperson in Gaza, Adnan Abu Hasna, said that the agency had closed its schools temporarily due to the violence.

“There will be no schools as long as the situation remains dangerous and the air strikes continue. The students will be in danger, that’s why UNRWA has decided to suspend the work in its educational institutions until further notice,” Mr. Hasna told UN Radio.

He added that the agency’s international staff members continue with their work, noting that staff had entered Gaza today to help with emergency operations.

Also today, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) highlighted that the continuous waves of airstrikes and indiscriminate rocket fire have triggered widespread fear among the civilian population in Gaza and southern Israel, especially amongst children.

In particular, OCHA added, the humanitarian situation remains precarious, with widespread panic amongst the population in Gaza, stockpiling of food and fuel, low levels of drug and medical supplies and the closure of crossings for humanitarian goods. In southern Israel, all schools within a 40 kilometre radius of the border with Gaza are closed and movement is limited.

OCHA said that all parties must uphold their obligations under international humanitarian law to spare civilians from the effects of hostilities, in accordance with the principles of distinction and proportionality.

On Wednesday, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon spoke by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy about the situation in Gaza and southern Israel.

He expressed his concern to Netanyahu about the deteriorating situation, which in addition to the increase of indiscriminate rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, includes the targeted killing by Israel of a Hamas military operative in Gaza.

Ahmed Said Khalil al-Jabari, the head of the military wing of the Palestinian group Hamas which controls Gaza, was killed when his car was reportedly targeted during Israeli air strikes on the territory, following a wave of rocket attacks against Israel from Gaza.

In the telephone call, the UN chief also noted his expectation that Israeli reactions are measured so as not to provoke a new cycle of bloodshed that could cause additional civilian casualties and have dangerous spillover effects in the region. He also called for the parties to exercise the utmost restraint and to respect international humanitarian law.

In his call with President Morsy, the Secretary-General stated the need to prevent any further deterioration of the situation, and expressed strong support for the leadership being exercised by Egypt to restore calm in the region.

The Security Council also met on the issue on Wednesday night behind closed doors.