“During this time, household food stocks are expected to dwindle and food prices to rise,” Alex Brecher-Doliver, spokesperson for the UN World Food Programme (WFP) told the UN News Centre from Bamako, Mali’s capital and largest city.

For the past few weeks, he has travelled between Bamako, Mopti and Segou, in the south to the areas in the north most affected by the crisis last year, including Timbuktu.

Northern Mali was occupied by radical Islamists after fighting broke out in January 2012 between Government forces and Tuareg rebels. The conflict displaced hundreds of thousands of people and prompted the Malian Government to request assistance from France to halt the southward march of the extremist groups.

With the Islamist occupation reversed by subsequent actions, the UN recently set up its newest integrated peacekeeping mission in the country – MINUSMA– to consolidate stability and create the conditions for provision of humanitarian aid.

More than 4.3 million people are now in need of such aid, with nearly1.4 million requiring immediate food assistance in the north, according to WFP figures. Some 110 children die every day, a third from malnutrition.

The UN has access to areas in the north, but the situation remains “tight,” Brecher-Dolivet said. “Humanitarian access in the north remains unpredictable,” he commented.

“Many markets are functioning, at least partially, but cash is a problem.” Few banks in the country are open,” he added.

“There is electricity in the main cities, often only between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m.,” Mr. Brecher-Dolivet said. “Even though some gas stations are not functional yet, fuel can be found. Often of poor quality, though.”

“More and more stores are open, and Government offices in light of the upcoming presidential election,” he added, speaking of the scheduled 28 July vote.

Asked what was available in stores, he said “mainly cereals – rice, millet, sorghum – bread, sugar and oil.”

Even before the conflict, the food security situation in Mali was precarious. The West African country is at the heart of the Sahel region whose sliver stretches across the continent from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Red Sea in the east. Access to food in the Sahel is hampered by high poverty, extreme weather, environmental degradation, low investment in agriculture, high prices and vulnerability to market volatility.

The humanitarian community has appealed for $1.7 billion to help millions in need this year in the region, which is still reeling from the crisis that affected some 18 million people in 2012. This year’s appeal is less than 40 per cent funded.

Travelling in the country, Mr. Brecher-Dolivet sees people farming – the rainy season has now started, the time when people plant crops, such as the grain grass sorghum.

Cattle breeding is also practiced in Mali, so it is common to see sheep, goats, cows and donkeys standing around staring back at you, he added.

Last month, WFP and its partner, the Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED) in southern Mali started providing food assistance to displaced people and host families. Beneficiaries will for the first time receive cash transfers instead of food. Increasingly popular, the cash transfers empower families to decide themselves what food to buy, and to purchase it locally, spurring local markets.

Similar programs are due to be launched next month in Mopti, and in Timbuktu and Gao, if security allows.

In other parts of the north, WFP is extending its emergency school feeding program to some 300 schools. There is also a work-for-food programme in projects near Timbuktu to rehabilitate irrigation plots, along with supplementary feeding activities for new mothers and their infants.

The biannual Food Outlook published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) states that countries are estimated to spend $1.09 trillion to import food this year, hovering near last year’s level but 13 per cent below the record in 2011.

The greatest changes to the import bill costs of importing animal-protein products, which includes meat, dairy and fish, may increase as much as eight per cent to around $543 billion, dependent on larger volumes of imports as well as prices, particularly for dairy products and fish.

These increases to the bill could likely be offset by anticipated lower international prices for sugar and vegetable oils, as well as on beverages such as coffee, tea and cocoa.

The UN food agency said its Global Food Consumption Price Index has registered little movement since the end of last year, in contrast to the volatility of earlier months.

Meanwhile, record harvest prices are due to force global grain prices lower, the agency predicted, balancing out trade.

Cereal harvests forecast is expected to surge to a record 2,460 million tonnes in 2013, pointing to “a more comfortable” cereal supply-and-demand balance in the new season, according to the report.

This year’s forecasted cereal production could be 6.5 per cent up from last year’s reduced level, FAO reported, supported by higher global wheat output, rice production, and a sharp expected rebound in maize harvests and use, particularly for feed and industrial purposes, in the United States.

“Based on current supply and demand prospects, by 2014, world cereal inventories could register an 11 per cent recover to 569 million tonnes, the highest level in 12 years,” the report cited.

The resulting world trade in cereals is expected to reach 306 million tonnes, similar to this season’s level.

Also, global fish production is likely to reach a new record level in 2013 topping 160 million tonnes for the first time, as world fish prices continue to rise.

“Buoyant demand in developing countries for has driven world aquaculture production to new heights,” authors of the report said, adding that consumption is down in the traditional markets.

Fish for direct human consumption will also increase significantly during 2013 as a smaller share of captures is destined for fish meal production. On a per capita basis, global fish consumption is approaching 20 kg a year. Prices on a number of farmed species, such as salmon, shrimp and selected bivalves, have risen sharply, according to the report.

Demand for meat production is expected to grow more in developing countries, with the global outlook remaining modest. Meat prices have been historically high since early 2011.

World meat production is forecast at 308.2 million tonnes in 2013, a modest increase of 4.3 million tonnes, or 1.4 percent on 2012. While producers in many countries continue to face high feed prices, these started falling in 2012, and could further diminish in 2013.

World trade in dairy is expected to expand, but not by much due to limited supply. International prices of dairy products registered strong growth during the first four months of 2013, particularly in March and April, and high prices are expected for the next few months. The main cause of the price surge was a steep fall-off in New Zealand’s milk production.

Sugar production is expected to rise in 2012-2013 by 2.8 percent to 190 million tonnes, surpassing consumption for a second consecutive season. The surplus is likely to hover around 6.5 million tonnes. Increased production in Brazil, United States, Australia and China is anticipated to offset declines in India, the EU and Thailand.

This year’s Food Outlook has a special report on quinoa, coinciding with 2013 having been declared the International Year of Quinoa by the UN General Assembly.

“World demand is expected to keep growing vigorously in the coming years, driven primarily by developed countries, where expenditure on healthier and natural foods is on an upward trend,” the report said.

A UN mission undertaken from 18 to 22 January found that cereal, fruit and vegetable production has been halved in some areas, which have also seen massive destruction of irrigation and other infrastructure, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“The mission was struck by the plight of the Syrian people whose capacity to cope is dramatically eroded by 22 months of crisis,” said Dominique Burgeon, Director of FAO’s Emergency and Rehabilitation Division, who joined with representatives of six other UN agencies in the mission led by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

“Destruction of infrastructure in all sectors is massive and it is clear that the longer the conflict will last, the longer it will take to rehabilitate it,” he added.

Affected areas in the capital, Damascus, as well as in the governorates of Homs and Dera’a were visited by the mission, which was coordinated with both the Government and the opposition.

The mission found that vegetable, fruit and olive production declined significantly in both Homs and Dera’a governorates, including a 60 per cent drop in vegetable production in Homs and a 40 per cent drop in olive oil production in Dera’a.

The production of poultry, a traditional source of cheap animal protein, has also been severely hit with major farms destroyed in Homs, Hama and Idlib.

In addition, movement of livestock to grazing areas has not been possible and their survival is compromised by the lack of animal feed and veterinary drugs, the importation of which is hampered by sanctions.

Of the 10 million Syrians who live in rural areas – about 46 per cent of the population – 80 per cent derive their livelihoods from agriculture, according to FAO, and the sector is critical for the survival of millions during the crisis.

“It is clear from discussions with NGOs [non-governmental organizations] and technical officers of the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, that security conditions permitting, agriculture has a huge role to play in helping people to stay on their land and generate income to cope with their most urgent needs,” Mr. Burgeon said.

“They however need urgent agricultural support in terms of seeds, fertilizers, animal feed, veterinary drugs, poultry and rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure,” he said.

Meanwhile, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos, who last week sounded the alarm over catastrophic humanitarian conditions in Syria at the UN Security Council, brought her plea for an urgent ramp-up of aid to Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum has convened.

Relaying the results of the multi-agency mission, she said that agency representatives were shocked at what they saw. “They were very clear that the effect of nearly two years of conflict has had a terrible impact on people, especially on children.

“I repeat: four million people need help, two million are internally displaced and 400,000 out of 500,000 Palestinian refugees have been affected,” she said.

She said that despite the dangerous environment that humanitarian partners faced, they were making a difference. “But it is not enough, especially as we cannot keep pace with the rising number of people in acute need,” she stressed.

“We need more people, we need more partners and we need to be able to deliver more quickly,” she added, noting that the humanitarian community had also requested $1.5 billion to help displaced people and their host communities in Syria and neighbouring countries for the next six months.

A funding conference for humanitarian aid for Syria is planned for 30 January in Kuwait, to be hosted by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the Emir of that country, she noted.

“We hope that the conference will yield the resources we need,” she said.

“The situation is very serious – our field staff have observed that households in parts of the country have harvested almost nothing,” said WFP Country Director Abdoulaye Diop. “Our first priority will be to make sure that vulnerable people have enough food to sustain themselves through this lean season. At the same time, we must invest in more long-term solutions to build resilience and break the cycle of hunger.”

According to a recent report jointly produced by the Government, UN agencies, and academic and non-governmental organizations, more than 1.6 million people will need food assistance in the coming months, a substantial increase from earlier this year when 202,000 people were in need of food assistance.

While the lean season in Malawi is usually between December and March, a late onset of rain and prolonged dry spells resulted in a decrease of maize production by as much as 40 per cent in some areas. The effects will be felt the most in the southern part of the country.

In addition, the recent devaluation of the national currency by 49 per cent, coupled with soaring inflation at 17.3 per cent, has produced sharp increases in the prices of basic goods and services, pushing the cost of living to unsustainable levels for many Malawians.

Retail maize prices have already increased by 50 per cent compared to the same time last year, and are expected to increase in the lean season.

WFP, along with the Government and other partners, will distribute locally produced maize, pulses and blended food. Cash transfers may also be made available to the most vulnerable to enable them to buy food in areas where market conditions allow.

The agency is urging donors to provide rapid funding support to assist more than one million people starting from August, covering the period until March 2013.

In a news release WFP said its emergency intervention will be implemented in tandem with medium- and longer-term assistance, including school meals, programmes to boost the nutrition of malnourished children and mothers, and resilience-building activities to address chronic food insecurity and disaster risk reduction.