“UNHCR is particularly concerned at the present situation in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where refugees are arriving at a rate of 800-900 people per day – double the rate of just three months ago,” spokesman Adrian Edwards told journalists in Geneva. “The need for space for new camps, and to decongest existing camps is of paramount importance.”

Edwards said the situation at Domiz camp, in north-west Iraq’s Dohuk governorate, is especially worrying. “The Domiz camp is currently housing 35,000 Syrian refugees and is critically overcrowded. Thousands of families are sharing tents with newly arrived refugees as almost 3,500 families do not have their own shelters.

The crowding is in turn having an impact on sanitation, which is already below humanitarian standards. Congestion and warmer temperatures are increasing vulnerability to outbreaks of diseases as well as to tension between camp residents.

“The number of children below five years of age suffering from diarrhoea in the camp has doubled in recent weeks. Since February, on average nine children out of every 100 suffer from diarrhoea per week,” Edwards said. “Additionally, there have been 62 cases of hepatitis A since the beginning of the year. UNHCR, UNICEF and WHO are conducting a joint assessment to address the observed increase.”

UNHCR has been working with the government of Iraq and authorities in Kurdistan since last October with a view to ensuring the allocation of more space. Edwards said UNHCR was encouraged by a recent decision by the authorities of Erbil and Sulaymaniya to allocate more space. However, the space offered can accommodate only 25,000 people – or one third of the need.

As of March 28, more than 121,000 Syrian refugees had registered in Iraq. More than 90 per cent are hosted in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Most new arrivals are families from Qamishli city, while others come from Al-Hassakeh, Aleppo and Damascus. While refugee camps have been established at Al Qa’im and Dohuk, more than 60 per cent of registered refugees in the Kurdistan Region are being hosted by Iraqi communities or are living in unfinished houses.

UNHCR has a permanent presence at both Domiz and Al Qa’im. “Together with partners and the government, we are responding to the needs of urban refugees and those living in the camps through support to the reception and registration mechanisms, distribution of emergency shelter and essential life sustaining items such as blankets, mattresses and kitchen sets, and help for people to access education, health and other activities,” Edwards said.

Last year, almost 5,000 kits with core relief items were distributed to some 7,500 Syrian refugees in Domiz and Al Qa’im. Last winter, UNHCR, partner agencies and the government distributed 25,000 thermal blankets as well as heaters, kerosene and quilts.

Elsewhere in the region the flight of refugees from Syria is continuing. As of March 28, more than 1.21 million Syrians had been registered or were awaiting registration in the region.

Registration is a key tool through which refugees are identified, protected and assisted, and UNHCR has introduced extraordinary measures to expand registration capacities. These have included the establishment of new registration centres, double shifts and emergency procedures, resulting in a significant reduction of the waiting period.

34,400 Syrian refugees have arrived in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq since the Syrian conflict erupted in March last year. And they continue to come, states UNHCR , with an average of 500 people reaching Domiz every day.

Amongst them are Magi and her mother. She’s only four years old, but Syrian refugee Magi can’t shake off the sounds and images of war from her mind.

“I can’t sleep at night; I still have images of soldiers shooting from the roofs,” says the young girl in her family’s tent at the Domiz in Dohuk governorate.

War forced her family to flee the embattled northern city of Aleppo and seek shelter in northern Iraq. Her mother continues: “There were power cuts all the time in our building and prices went up significantly. It was impossible to buy bread and oil, shops were always closed and Magi was crying because she was hungry, so we decided to flee the country.”

At the camp, many of the children arrive suffering from post-traumatic symptoms such as nightmares, anxiety attacks and painful memories. UNHCR meet several children in need of professional support, as well as participation in social activities, to help them cope in their new, unfamiliar environment.

In Domiz, UNHCR identifies cases of traumatized children and refers them to the camp’s mental health unit, which is run by the Kurdistan Regional Government’s department of health. Here, experts provide psychological counselling and support to the children and their families, as well as follow up on their mental health situation.

Growing numbers of Syrians arriving with no economic resources and seeking assistance are putting increased pressure on services in all sectors, including food, shelter, water and health care.

The new arrivals, including Magi’s family, are living in transit areas while the infrastructure of the camp is being expanded to cope with the growing influx. It currently provides shelter to some 14,500 refugees.

As of early October, some 34,400 Syrian refugees have been registered in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. Duhok governorate hosts the largest number with more than 27,000 people, followed by Erbil (5,852) and Suleimaniya (1,683).

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq continues to welcome Syrian Kurdish refugees and facilitate their integration and freedom of movement by issuing residency permits and providing access to public services. However, the situation is critical and the future for these people is most uncertain.

As far as the external issues are concerned, it has become obvious that the al-Assad regime has by its side the undisputable powers of Russia and China. It is noteworthy that these two countries have recently announced that they will not be accepting any western intervention in Syria, thus responding to Obama who said that the use of chemical weapons by the regime would be a “red line” for the US and a reson for the use of military force. In this light, opponents of the Syrian regime remain the western states with leading country the US, while Turkey plays a central regional role against the Assad regime – both as a meeting centre of regional and international actors for the management of the crisis and the organisation of the Syrian opposition/resistance, as well as a refugee hosting centre and a (indirect) supporter of the Syrian rebels. Important role in supporting the rebels are also playing Arab countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, while it has been reported that N. Iraq trains and reinforces Syrian Kurds for the armed resistance within Syria. Moreover, Turkey and the US have been discussing along with other western allies the establishment of a partial no-fly zone over Syria for the protection of non-combatants. In the context of the external dynamics of the Syrian crisis, it important to mention Iran which is one of the very few allies of the Syrian regime and one of the reasons why the US (and Israel, among others) want Assad replaced.

Domestically, a very dynamic situtation has been developed in Syria not only because of the indirect involvement of external forces but also because of the country’s religious and ethnic complexity – there are, for example, Kurdish, Sunni, Alawi, and Druze communities. Therefore, one would expect for the conflict in question to end up, in one way or another, in Syria’s dismemberment – whether that means its federalization, or the secession of some of its districts/regions. After all, many are those who argue that “new” Syria could consist not only of two (one of which, Kurdish) but of five confederate states/regions, according to its ethno-religous synthesis. Yet, it has also been made clear that the Assad regime will not go down (at least not easily and soon) without either the massive support of the rebels by third actors, or an external military intervention – or both. The reality and geopolitical complexity of the Syrian crisis render whaterver developments of high importance, and the possible defeat of the regime an overturning point for the regional geopolitics and balance of power.

In this regard, the Syrian crisis can have “collateral damages” for many actors; to be sure, the possibilities for negative consequences affect some actors more than others – one important reason for this is the geographical proximity. Starting from the international level, the first “collateral damages” of the overthrow of the Syrian regime – provided that it would be replaced with a more pro-western one – would be the Russian and Chinese regional interests, while something like that would also constitute a (communicative) hit to the these countries’ policies, thus providing another victory to the West and its interests. Further, on a regional level, there would be a certain hit to the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamaz triangle, since Syria has been an important and close ally. Iran in particular would be in a very difficult position in the midst of the crisis over its nuclear program as it would stay without allies at a time when its relations with Turkey have also took a turn for the worse. Finally, perhaps one of the most important regional geopolitical implications of the Syrian crisis would be the now very plausible creation of a Syrian Kurdistan. That would have chain consequences which would fist and foremost affect Turkey, and maybe later Iran, too. A Syrian Kurdistan would be a safe haven for the Kurdish guerillas of PKK, from where they could carry out attacks against Turkish targets. It is also important that in such a scenario the Syrian Kurdistan would be the second Kurdistan in a row, after N. Iraq. This fact, in conjuction with PKK’s recent intensified action, would lead to turbulence within Turkey with the Kurdish minority claiming more eagerly and decisively its rights. The outcome of such a development would very much depend on the government’s reaction, while wrong management could easily lead to the worsening of the situtation as well as to the influence of Iran’s Kurdish minority.

Note: This article was first published in Modern Diplomacy, in Greek. Zenonas Tziarras is a PhD Candidate in International Politics at the University of Warwick and a Junior Research Scholar at Strategy International.

Kurdistan has begun exporting crude oil to Turkey, which has agreed to refine it and send back the fuel, violating a red line for Baghdad, which claims sole right to export the country’s oil.

“We started exporting limited quantities of crude oil to Turkey a few days ago,” Seerwan Abubaqr, an adviser to the Kurdistan government’s natural resources ministry, told AFP.

An Iraqi Kurdistan official said on Sunday that crude was being exported to Turkey so it could be refined into various products before being brought back to Kurdistan, AFP reported.

In May, Kurdistan and Turkey agreed they would press ahead with building an export pipeline which could be operational next year, according to Arabian Gazette.

Turkish Prime Minister Receb Taib Erdogan said in Brazil: “Iraq’s government stopped exporting oil derivatives and fuel to the Kurdistan Region. Thus they asked for fuel and we agreed. Instead they will provide us with crude oil.”

Autonomous Kurdistan is locked in a dispute with Baghdad over who should control the region’s vast oil reserves.

In April the Kurdistan halted exports through infrastructure controlled by the central Iraqi government – accusing Baghdad of not paying the foreign oil companies working in the region. The KRG administration insists Baghdad has neglected the reigon’s needs.

KRG administration says Baghdad has barred the dispatch of petroleum products to the northern region in response to the autonomous government’s decision to go ahead with oil exploration deals with other foreign countries, which the Iraqi oil ministry persistently denies, according to Arabian Gazette.

The Kurdistan region has its own elected government and also a well-trained militia force called the Peshmerga.

“The Red Notice for Al-Hashemi represents a regional an international alert to all of Interpol’s 190 member countries to seek their help in locating and arresting him, following the issue of a national arrest warrant by Iraq’s Judicial Investigative Authority as part of an investigation in which security forces seized bombing materials and arrested individuals,” according to INTERPOL.

Iraq’s VP was to tried in absentia in Baghdad  last thursday, but the trial was adjourned until May 10 as Hashemi and some of his guards were charged last week with killing six judges, as judicial spokesman Abdelsattar Bayraqdar put the overall number of accusations against the group at about 150, according to AFP.

Hashemi had previously offered to be tried  in the city of Kirkuk,northern Iraq, controlled by Sunnis and Kurds but vowed not to return to Baghdad to face the charges because he believes the courts are controlled by the Prime Minister, Maliki.

Iraqi authorities issued an arrest warrant for Hashemi in December after the US completed its pullout and he first sought refuge with Iraqi Kurds who refused to hand him over. He then fled to Turkey, after stops in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Hashemi who was last known to be in Turkey, said in a statement posted on his website early on Tuesday that he was awaiting a “political solution” to the standoff, Al Jazeera reported.

Hashemi said he was planning to return to Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, on Tuesday but decided to delay his trip after appeals by unnamed political leaders, according to Al Arabiya.

Interpol secretary general Ronald Noble said in a statement that the Red Notice would “significantly restrict” Hashemi’s ability to travel and cross international borders.and cross international borders. It is a powerful tool that will help authorities around the world locate and arrest him.

“This case also clearly demonstrates the commitment of Iraqi authorities to work with the world police community via Interpol to apprehend individuals facing serious charges,” he said.

A Red Notice is not an international arrest warrant. Many of Interpol’s member countries however, consider a Red Notice a valid request for provisional arrest, especially if they are linked to the requesting country via a bilateral extradition treaty. In cases where arrests are made based on a Red Notice, these are made by national police officials in Interpol member countries.

Interpol cannot demand that any member country arrest the subject of a Red Notice, and an individual wanted for arrest should be considered innocent until proven guilty.