43% of respondents believe that SYRIZA would be the winner if elections were imminent, as against 38.4% who believe the same thing for ND. 46.6% say Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is best for the job, while 31.8% say Alexis Tsipras could do it better.

In terms of the popularity of political leaders, Antonis Samaras leads with 42.3%, followed by Fotis Kouvelis (42.1%), Alexis Tsipras (37.3%), Panos Kammenos (29.4 %), Aleka Papariga (26.3%), Evangelos Venizelos (19.5%) and Nikos Michaloliakos (16.6%).

Previous weekend, a survey by company Metrisi for Parapolitika newspaper presents SYRIZA leading in terms of voting intention with a narrow 0.4 percentage points.

A survey of Pulse RC for 6-Days weekly, suggests SYRIZA gathers 20% as against 19.5% of ND. Golden Dawn comes third with 12%, followed by PASOK 7%, Communist Party and Independent Greeks both 5% respectively and DIMAR 3.5%. 5.5% of respondents say they would vote for “another party”, while obscure vote reaches 10%. Neutral vote and abstinence reach 12.5%.

Political scientists and pollsters gathered last week at Panteion University to discuss critical elements of May 6 elections, in an attempt to pin down some arguments that could throw light on the new political scene in the country.

A key concept that came out quickly from the start was uncertainty, as regards the electorate’s behaviour; after all, it is a fact that on May 6, 40% of voters decided over the ballot box. This is an astonishing figure, but at the same time, a notion most Greeks agree on, having stories to tell about people’s wrath that made many to draw randomly out of a stockpile of 30 party ballots.

Discussion at Panteion University also confirmed something that was evident amongst analysts a long time ago: that the degradation of Greece’s political system began in 2007, after New Democracy won the snap elections that took place soon after the huge forest fires in Peloponnese. Metron Analysis’ Stratos Phanaras pinpointed four parametres that came to life back then: a) clientelistic activity boosted by ND administration, b) political trust collapsing due to an already lost 4-government season-period of failed promises (2004-2007), c) both ND and PASOK leaderships appeared denying Greek fiscal reality and d) the escape of Karamanlis from the premiership two years later.

Truly, ND’s steep fall in 2009 -after a badly conceived pre-election campaign that included a doomsday approach and an extensive outdoor advertisement activity that enhanced the negative result- proved the mortality of the old parties; and things got worse. In May 6, the ballot recorded low double digits, with 18.8% to stand worse than expected, partly due to last minute political strategy failures.

In the voter’s mind, the disappointment of the Karamanlis years was temporarily nurtured by George Papandreou’s “there is money” concept, which, despite the dominant talk, it began as an attempt to point towards hidden Greek GDP and possible savings from tackling corruption and ended up becoming a vast political myth that enriched the rhetoric of his opponents.

In the last two years, “people lost the ability to plan ahead; to place themselves in the future”, a pollster said. At the same time, the political system could not support clientelism people have been used to, for so many years. In 2010, the initiation of the Memorandum policy found no social support, since its implementation so far relied exclusively on fear tactics and tax hikes, rather than a process of creative and daring approach of the country’s real problems.

Political scientists claim that the new era in Greece needs to be thoroughly examined, some say away from any communication influence. Well, for those who believe in fragmented approaches, there is news for them coming from the real world. Greece’s new situation should be seen through a multi-disciplinary prism that will also allow for out of the box thinking.

For instance, social networks, “citizen journalism”, rumour-style bloggish publications and peer recommendations through Facebook and Twitter constitute more important sources for young people in their understanding of reality than any politician with a suit, who will stand on a podium to address an applauding partisan audience. This is a reality old style politicians in Greece still seem to fail to comprehend.

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of AlYunaniya.com

An opinion poll by MRB for real.gr, ND leads with 23.9%, closely followed by SYRIZA 22.5% and PASOK 12.6%, Independent Greeks 6.2%, Democratic Left 5.7%, Golden Dawn 4.7% and KKE 4%. After the unclear vote and blanks are eliminated, ND gets 27.6%, SYRIZA 26%, PASOK 14.6%, Independent Greeks 7.1%, KKE 4.7%, Golden Dawn 5.4%, Democratic Left 6.6%, Re-Create Greece 3.3%.

According to MARC for Alpha Television, ND leads with 26%, followed by SYRIZA 24.3%, PASOK 12.5%, Independent Greeks 6.3%, Communist Party (KKE) 5.7%, Democratic Left 5.3%, Golden Dawn 4.2%, Recreate Greece 2.5% and Ecologists-Greens and LAOS 1% each. After the unclear vote and blanks are eliminated, ND gets 28.8% (127 seats), SYRIZA 27% (72 seats), PASOK 13.9% (37 seats), Independent Greeks 7% (19 seats), KKE 6.3% (17 seats), Democratic Left 5.9% (16 seats), and Golden Dawn 4.6% (12 seats).

The majority of the respondents (65.9%) want the renegotiation of the loan agreement, 21.7% want its termination and 8.9% say that the country should meet its commitments. In case the terms of the loan agreement are not changed in a satisfactory manner, 72.9 percent of the respondents say that Greece should stay in the Eurozone “at any cost”, while 19% say that the country should terminate the agreements and return to the drachma.

Another opinion poll carried out by ALCO for newsit.gr, ND leads with 25%, followed by SYRIZA 22.7, PASOK 12.5%, Independent Greeks 6.5%, Democratic Left 5.2%, KKE 5%, Golden Dawn 4.5%, Re-Create Greece 2.2%, Ecologists 1.4% and LAOS 1%. On the question of who is the best to seek amendments in the memorandum, ND leader Antonis Samaras and SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras both receive 21%, but 30% answer “neither.”

In ALCO’s poll published in Proto Thema, ND gets 25.6%, SYRIZA 22.9%, PASOK 14%, Independent Greeks 6.4%, KKE 5.6%, Golden Dawn 4.6% and DIMAR 4.6%.

In a poll by Kapa Research published in Sunday’s To Vima newspaper, ND stands at 25.8% SYRIZA 20.1%, PASOK 13%, KKE 6.3%, Independent Greeks 5.4%, DIMAR 5.3% and Golden Dawn 5.2%.

In MARC’s poll published in Sunday’s ‘Ethnos’, ND gets 25.2%, SYRIZA 23.2%, PASOK 12.6%, Independent Greeks 6.6%, DIMAR 5.3%, KKE 4.5% and Golden Dawn 4.4%.

In MRB’s poll for Real News newspaper, ND leads with 23.3%, SYRIZA gets 22.2%, followed by PASOK 13.8%, Independent Greeks 7%, DIMAR 5.7%, KKE 5% and Golden Dawn 4%.

Finally, in a poll by VPRC for KONTRA TV channel, SYRIZA is leading with 28.5%, followed by ND 26%, PASOK 12.%, Independent Greeks 7%, DIMAR 7%, Golden Dawn 5.5%, Communist Party 5%.

An ALCO poll published with Proto Thema shows ND 23.1%, SYRIZA 21.4%, PASOK 13.5%, Independent Greeks 7.3%, KKE 5.2%, Golden Dawn 5.2% and Democratic Left 6%; other parties 7.7%, 12% undecided.

According to a Public Issue poll for Kathimerini on Sunday, SYRIZA leads with 28%, followed by ND 24%, PASOK 15%, Democratic Left 7%, Independent Greeks 7%, KKE 5%, Golden Dawn 4.5%, Ecologists Greens 1.5% and 4% other parties. Asked who is best suited for prime minister, Alexis Tsipras and “No one” share the lead with 19%, followed by Antonis Samaras 17%, Evangelos Venizelos 16%, Fotis Kouvelis 15%, Panos Kammenos 7%, Aleka Papariga 2% and N. Michaloliakos 1%.

Pollster Elias Nikolakopoulos said on Mega television prime time news that the percentage of undecided voters remains high, whilst participation is expected to be less than 2009, despite the crucial nature of the national election. A joint exit poll by major opinion companies companies that will be announced at 7.00 pm will give a ± 0.5 range, except for the parties that are close to the 3% threshold. For these parties, estimations will have to wait for the final counting of the electoral outcome.

Marc polling company CEO T. Gerakis told Alpha television: “Undecided voters are more than ever… even those who have decided have not a fixed opinion regarding the political party that will eventually choose to vote. One day they say one thing and the next something else…” he said.

PASOK specialists argued yesterday that 90% of the undecided voters do not belong to the so-called anti-MoU group. They explain this as follows: “hardcore anti-MoU voters have already decided what to vote. Voters that are more neutral tend to move around until the last minute”.

ND people on the other hand argue that in the last 30 years, 70% of undecided voters in Greece tend to vote for the party that is closer to victory. “In this case”, they say, “figures show a sweeping victory for the New Democracy.” And it’s winning performance was recorded for the last time yesterday. ND leader’s staffers believe that ND’s percentage will exceed 30%. Rolling secret polling showed already a steady 28%.

Exit polls will be published at 7 pm, including officially 75% of the sample. At 8 pm a second wave will follow with 100% of the sample, and around 9:30 pm. there will be a reassessment of the election result. NET, ANT1, Alpha and Mega agreed to share the cost of an exit poll by the polling companies

The first “safe” estimate of Sunday’s election result is not expected to emerge before 11:00 pm, according to the IT firm Singular Logic, which has been assigned the job of collecting and transmitting the results of voting throughout the country. They also clarified that obtaining such a ‘safe estimate’ (with a small deviation of around 0.5%) will depend on whether they have a response from 50% of the sample in 5,000 polling stations chosen at random and representative of the 56 electoral constituencies.

It is argued that when elites are divided, journalism thrives. Well, only if the latter is not part of the problem. As in many other countries around the world, deep pockets in Greece have always nurtured their private lists of MPs and journalists and businesspeople were used to exchange their support with government contracts, once ‘their guys’ are appointed in public office. A simple proof is the fact that no one could ever explain the origins of expenses of individual candidates during pre election periods.

These days, things are quite different. Payrolls have dried out, politicians appear tired and ineffective on the racing track, whilst entrepreneurs are cornered by civil servants, who have already seen their incomes shattered and what’s more, are closely followed by troika executives with a ‘license to kill’.

So, what has been common practice for decades, now leads to handcuffs and public ridicule. What has always been a means of showing oneself around is now evidence of socially not accepted behaviour. Old money, if survived, is laying low and new riches are already slammed by their overstatements (and overspending).

When state money ran out, elites started panicking. They knew the system too well to expect any hope for improvement, especially when current gen of politicians remained in charge. However, astonishing things happened in the last two years, during which a late maturity occurred in the lives of Greeks, albeit in a dramatic way. Firstly, citizens were deprived by most of the ‘fat’ accumulated during the ‘golden deficit years’, secondly, after a decade of inactivity and failure, politicians made way to a technocrat who came in to make things right. Thirdly, international profiteers pardoned a large part of the Greek public debt, bankruptcy was avoided and the CDS proved peanuts -in local terms- despite the painstaking efforts of allegedly gifted economists who kept betting on disaster. Fourthly, EU officials started talking about growth and jobs, while reforms were signed and voted by a smoked Parliament. These structural developments create a series of conditions for a clean start.

However, politicians and the ‘old system’ remain puzzled. The first have proved unworthy and the latter, who had already cashed out much of their wealth in foreign banks, lost the ‘drachmisation’ opportunity and the chance to bring in hard currency to reposition themselves in the country.

Negativity that is still around troubling citizens, who attempt to think ahead, has to do with a general disbelief towards a political and economic system that appears crippled in the post PSI era. The old state-fed and boneless corporatism is unable to lead the country into a new equilibrium, defined by 21st century. New money is urgently needed; the honest, ambitious and efficient type…

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of AlYunaniya.com