43% of respondents believe that SYRIZA would be the winner if elections were imminent, as against 38.4% who believe the same thing for ND. 46.6% say Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is best for the job, while 31.8% say Alexis Tsipras could do it better.

In terms of the popularity of political leaders, Antonis Samaras leads with 42.3%, followed by Fotis Kouvelis (42.1%), Alexis Tsipras (37.3%), Panos Kammenos (29.4 %), Aleka Papariga (26.3%), Evangelos Venizelos (19.5%) and Nikos Michaloliakos (16.6%).

Previous weekend, a survey by company Metrisi for Parapolitika newspaper presents SYRIZA leading in terms of voting intention with a narrow 0.4 percentage points.

A survey of Pulse RC for 6-Days weekly, suggests SYRIZA gathers 20% as against 19.5% of ND. Golden Dawn comes third with 12%, followed by PASOK 7%, Communist Party and Independent Greeks both 5% respectively and DIMAR 3.5%. 5.5% of respondents say they would vote for “another party”, while obscure vote reaches 10%. Neutral vote and abstinence reach 12.5%.

According to protothema.gr, yesterday evening, and after many consultations on Greek Constitution and parliamentary Standing Orders, the majority (ND, PASOK, DIMAR) decided that the process be done in one sitting with 3 separate votes -one for each proposal- and a total of 7 polls.

The coalition has proposed that only former Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou be probed in connection with the handling of the Lagarde list following the revelation by prosecutors last month that the names of three of his relatives were removed from the list, Kathimerini writes.

SYRIZA wants Papaconstantinou’s successor Evangelos Venizelos, who leads PASOK, to be investigated along with the former. And the two smaller opposition parties, Independent Greeks and the Golden Dawn want former premiers George Papandreou and Lucas Papademos to be probed too. It is expected that, for each of the votes, MPs will be given ballot papers with the names of all four politicians and the charges they would face.

The participation of MPs in all 3 votes is not mandatory, but New Democracy says “we will participate to the end. There is no question of withdrawal.”

The process is expected to will begin at 10 am and the voting is expected at 6 pm.

The political frenzy surrounding the Lagarde list affair has resulted in limiting the parliamentary discussion to the process, to increasing or decreasing the number of ballot boxes and votes and losing the actual substance which is placing the blame where blame is due, political analysts have suggested.

SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras said that “it is inconceivable that this was decided in the meeting of the three political leaders. The smooth functioning of parliament is being undermined and essentially we have a procedure that removes the secrecy of the vote. This has never happened before in the Greek parliament and reveals panic. Venizelos is self-incriminating himself by asking Samaras for protection. But at the same time he becomes his hostage.” Venizelos, on the other hand insists that “the perpetrator of this conspiracy against PASOK” is the main opposition party.

Finally, late yesterday tovima.gr wrote that SYRIZA is examining the possibility of withdrawing from the voting process if the majority insisted on its proposal for setting up seven polls.

This tactic, SYRIZA people maintain, waves the secrecy of the vote, in a way ‘protecting Mr. Venizelos, who main opposition would like to see investigated about his responsibility regarding the Lagarde list affair.

Current government coalition has been a possibility even before the votes were counted on the night of June 17. And as most analysts admit, elections were won due to fear tactics explored by old politics. Samaras, Venizelos and Kouvelis, after failing to agree in May, they got a second chance in June to form a government that should be willing to sacrifice itself to save the country.

In troika’s mind, there was only one path: to follow the Papademos’ government way. However, this was something Greek voters pledged the new government to avoid. When they heard the right-wing rhetoric built around the ‘MoU re-negotiation’ concept, they thought they did it. When Antonis Samaras promised to renegotiate the infamous Memorandum, voters saw an opportunity to combine austerity relief with the conservative, safer approach of ND. So they ditched the radical vote, doing Alexis Tsipras a favor, who, in reality, hoped to spend sometime in the opposition before getting serious with the country’s core politics.

By voting for old politics, Greeks decided to stay in familiar waters and refrain from exploring the uncertainty of the new. Besides, a 3-year austerity made people weaker, placing them closer to the indifference threshold.

Unfortunately or not, voters were spared with the technicalities. Pre-election rhetoric was based on the magic word of ‘re-negotiation’; a handful of columnists and politicians who really explained the fallacy were swamped by partisan juxtaposition. On election night, the new Prime Minister already abandoned the strong campaign word and started talking about ‘amendments’ that would be put into effect sometime during the 4-year period of governance and, most importantly, they would be received as a ‘bonus’ for playing the predetermined austerity cards right.

This is how a government can screw up political communication strategy (if any) overnight. Hardcore Samaras’ associates will probably say that communication is not that important, since what matters is real structural changes. Wrong. In times of crisis, people are disoriented. If you do not package your politics right, you are finished, especially in Greece, and particularly when you are a conservative leader running a coalition scheme supported by the socialists and the left.

From the moment the coalition is once again messing around with pensions, salaries and social benefits (namely horizontal measures) the pistol is cocked and the trigger is about to be pressed. Is people’s new disappointment enough to break a government? Probably not, but if the opposition manages to give meaningful words to social discontent, then breaking a link would be enough to unlock the administration and take it down; not noisily on the streets of Athens, but in the chambers of strategic politics.

The survival of the government depends on a really weak link held by PASOK leadership and this weak link is about to crack for a variety of reasons.

First of all, despite all the laws and measures passed in the past, most people consider the attack on household income a fresh piece of government policy. Being under the bankruptcy threat is no longer a strong argument; it was burned out during the Papandreou years.

The government’s vagueness about the new austerity measures continues the fear tactics, making things even worse. This alienates voters even further from the old political system, whose leftovers were used to form today’s government coalition. In simple terms, those who initiated fear and presented themselves as citizens’ protectors quickly failed on their promises and once more engaged fear as a tool to bail themselves out of the pressure.

When you need cash fast, is there any other alternative than cut spending from the source? Probably not, but why lie to the people? Was it the result of amateur political spinning or a failure of leadership to assess reality?

And this brings us to coalition’s inner politics. Old PASOK and Venizelos are in a down slope (sources say that a new formation is under way by key PASOK people) and Kouvelis is already experiencing an identity crisis and is in no position to play a role without the intermediary socialist link. This could crack the government in no time.

But still, a triggering event is required to make things roll that should be about the people (and not about partisan relations) and would put the coalition in a real unity test. In my view, this grassroots event is already scheduled in the political agenda for late August or early September and has nothing to do with troika’s wises.

It will be genuinely about the people and for the people.

This is the new draft bill for the relief of over-indebted households from loan obligations, tabled by SYRIZA to be discussed when the Parliament returns from the summer break.

Tsipras’ political argument is simple and involves hundreds of thousands of households that saw their budgets flattened by the crisis, due to unemployment or massive reduction of income. This policy was included in Antonis Samaras’ speeches during the pre-election period, but nothing is heard ever since.

The technical argument is that the banks are making up the losses from bad loans through their recapitalization from the Credit Stability Fund. At the same time, the banks continue to demand the repayment of the delayed installments, regardless of the fact that those loans have been classified as bad debts and are taken into account by the recapitalization.

In plain talk, those who will disagree with the bill would sound like asking Greek people to pay the banks twice for financial management failures of the past: first, via national borrowing for recapitalization, and second, from their own pockets for bad personal loans.

So, who is going to disagree with Tsipras’ proposal and on what grounds? In terms of political communication, this move is an absolute winner. It could rule the agenda and meddle beautifully with the new austerity measures the coalition government is about to announce; furthermore, it corners the coalition government politically, and challenges MPs (through a catalogue name vote) on an individual as well as collective level.

Conspiracy advocates could say that this is planned between the Premier and the main opposition. If this is not the case, New Democracy will have to react, PASOK and Democratic Left will have to take sides; MPs individually will have to do the same. This could prove to be a unique moment in Greek politics, gathering an across the board agreement, or the trigger in question, ending up being a win-win for the centre left.

It could also make Antonis Samaras the Prime Minister serving the shortest term in modern Greek history and turn Alexis Tsipras into the youngest one, ever.

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of Alyunaniya.com

New Democracy , PASOK and Democratic Left are hovering on the formation of coalition government Tuesday after holding talks yesterday, To Vima reports. Anti-bailout SYRIZA and Independent Greeks have rejected the posibility to join a coalition government as both insist they will not collaborate with ND and PASOK or any party that is willing to implement the harsh austerity measures taken in return for Greece’s bailout loans.

Samaras received a mandate to form a coalition government from the president on Monday,and met with the leaders of all the potential coalition partners.

In a statement after his meeting with Samaras, Democratic Left leader Kouvelis hinted that his party might be ready to join the coalition.

However, Venizelos proposed that SYRIZA should be brought into the coalition talks but his insistence that a government must be formed by Tuesday evening suggests he recognises that that’s not possible, according to ANA. 

Evangelos Venizelos, PASOK head and a former finance minister, finished in the election third behind Syriza. His 33 seats in the 300-member parliament mean he could form a government with New Democracy, which gained 129 seats. 


Venizelos, however, insisted on a broad coalition.

The addition of the leftists in the coalition would give a slightly wider public appeal and who also send away some of the criticism that the new government would simply be more of the same, as PASOK and ND have governed Greece almost exclusively since 1974, Kathimerini writes.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking at a meeting of G20 leaders in Mexico, said any loosening of Greece’s agreed reforms would be unacceptable and repeated that Athens had to stick to its bailout commitments.

1. It will be the first time in Greek modern history that a party of Left origin enters the Parliament with the winner’s walk.

2. The centre-right voters will be totally freaked out, due to the above, but also, because they cannot picture the future of the country under a Government of the Left, as Tsipras fancies to call a potential administration under his command.

3. Old leaders will have to realize that they should go; if they avoid doing so, they will be dragged out of office in an ugly way.

4. Eurozone people will hold their breath, waiting for the first words coming from Alexis Tsipras; this agony will last up until the programmatic speech of the new government.

5. The political system will start looking for the new Tsiprases. I would be pleased to observe an old personal wish come true; that is bypassing the next generation of politicians, just because they learned the job next to corrupted mentors.

6. After the initial shock, Europe will start arguing/theorizing about the neo-Leftism of Greeks that came out of anger and stubbornness but now is evolving into a new political trend.

7. Tsipras and friends will have an excellent opportunity to redefine politics, plant a few new seeds of 21st century ideology and focus on the humanistic economy, sustainable growth and compassionate capitalism, with a Leftish touch. This causes little concern since most Greeks (even the Left) can easily become true capitalists, providing they believe in ownership, self-employment and accumulation of personal wealth.

If SYRIZA finishes first in Sunday’s run-off poll, what will not happen (in a reverse order) is:

1. Tsipras will not prove so brave to mess with his factions and will save the true exploration of 21st century Greek well-being paradigm for the future; maybe somewhere around the middle of the election cycle. Big mistake. All previous Prime Ministers did the same thing and look what happened.

2. European debate and intellectual approaches will not begin in Greece; the country will remain politically polarised, under the realm of mediocre politicians and miserable academics who will continue looking for answers away from civic society.

3. New leaders will not appear in the case of ND and PASOK; at least for the next decade or so. The reason is simple: after the SYRIZA charge towards the political system, the dominance of ND and PASOK was moved higher up in the age pyramid and essentially away from the economically active population, turning pensioners as key target groups for these parties. Older people do not want Tsiprases.

4. To keep the peace amongst SYRIZA factions, Tsipras will be obliged to spin some straight anti-MoU moves with the Troika representatives, who will appear adamant as regards previous agreements; the latter know very well that if they give room to fresh debates, Greeks could get out of hand.

5. Old leaders will not step down easily, especially in the centre-right, since they know that political reality can easily change, especially as a result of a close race; polarization has already caused the re-emergence of the two-party system (ND-SYRIZA accumulative could surpass 60% of the vote). So, chances are any new coalition to assume responsibility of governance walking on thin ice.

Despite all, 6 and 7 points of the first bunch suggest that change is possible, [especially] even if radical SYRIZA finishes first. Then Tsipras would have to conclude the imitation process of Andreas Papandreou of the 1980s, who, as soon as he took over government, he scrapped radical factions and hushed disagreement offering the world to his political friends.

That is how SYRIZA could become a government. It also requires something else. Alexis to continue turning towards the right… Until he meets his liberal self…

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of AlYunaniya.com

“The fire will be uncontrollable and will not be limited to Greece and the southern European countries, it will destory the eurozone and this is not in anyone’s interest,” Tsipras said.

However, speaking at a news conference just days before Greece’s national elections on June 17, that his party had an “emergency plan” to deal with Greece’s euro exit if negotiations with international creditors on the country’s debt deal collapse.

“We’ve examined every possibility,” Tsipras said,  adding that he was positive about the outcome of the negotiations. He insisted his party will not approach Greece’s foreign creditors “to pick a fight, but to convince them,” Kathimerini reported.

Tsipras renewed his objections to the country’s latest 130 billion euro ($164 billion) bailout and referring to Spain’s 100-billion-euro bailout for its banks, Tsipras said Madrid had done better negotiations than Grecee and secured the aid without tough terms.

Syriza, which emerged as a political force during May 6 elections, rejects the country’s bailout with its international creditors, meanwhile, its main opponent,  New Democracy party, has vowed to stick to the bailout terms which include  austerity measures that have plunged the economy into recession.

Tsipras also said that political leaders did not have the luxury of several days to form a coalition after the June 17 polls. “On June 18 Greece must have a government, not  June 19, not  June 20. It will either be a leftist government with Syriza as its core or it will be a pro-memorandum government with New Democracy as its core,” he said.

In a book called ‘PASOK’ [Spourdalakis (ed.), 1998], it is argued that the political / electoral success of the socialist party in the 1980s relied on the fact that it managed to combine a left rhetoric, expressed through populist punch lines that sounded radical (against NATO and the then European Community), with the ability to come up with a governance competence that lasted from 1981 to 2004 (minus the 1989-1993 Mitsotakis administration interval).

Andreas Papandreou managed to combine demagogy with political realism. His legendary statement about the then European Community and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, loosely translated into “EC and NATO, both sides of the same coin” has been a major instrument of demagogy. Later on, PASOK government dismissed the anti-EC arguments that used to mobilise its supporters, started arguing for a Norway-type, special relation with the common market and finally ended up embracing the benefits of EU membership and the subsequent funds coming from the Support Frameworks.

In the last month or so, SYRIZA adopted a similar approach; it tackled May 6 election debate in a populist way, mounting the anti-austerity wave, attracting people from different political wings. Then it transformed its strong anti-EMU rhetoric into a crusade to change the EU, moving beyond the necessities of Greece, thus turning the Greek MoU debate into a debate for the future of Europe; essentially Tsipras avoids appearing specific as regards the core of Greece’s obligations, i.e. the loan agreement and the so-called MoU II. He curses Memorandum policies and promotes a “different route”, just like Andreas Papandreou used to blame the Right and promise the “third road to Socialism”.

Alexis Tsipras’ moves in the last 6 months have been quit effective. He is supported by some brainy political advisors and strategists as well as -rumour has it- Andreas Papandreou’s personal strategist Kostas Laliotis, who, while he issued an announcement to dismiss a right wing newspaper story that referred to his involvement, he appeared very generous in the way he complimented Tsipras’ close associates. It was almost as the leak was planted just to legitimize a meaningful announcement by PASOK’s enfant gâté.

Two weeks before the elections, Alexis Tsipras is turning heavier in his appearance, lowers the voice and stresses his words as an experienced leader, whose crowd keeps increasing. According to all indications, he will spend the remaining pre-election days investing on a leadership profile that will come in handy if the future of the country will be handed to him.

The climax moment could be the television debate with ND leader Antonis Samaras, that -in my opinion- could benefit the young politician, killing all hopes for the centre-right leader. But is seemed that New Democracy’s second thoughts have been wiser than the initial careless call that invited young Alexis to a beauty contest with his senior ND counterpart.

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of AlYunaniya.com 

Tomorrow at 11:30 A.M Syriza leader with main focus on the electoral programme’s politics and foreign policy. After that, a meeting will follow behind closed doors with the ambassadors.

Some rushed to say that the meeting is a cleanup of the position of the party on the Memorandum issue as much confusion is exacerbated.

Foreign sources in Athens have expressed concerns regarding the agenda of the meeting, as well as the symbolisms associated with SYRIZA’s party initiative that, according to diplomats, aims at legitimizing Tsipras’ image as a leader.

The countries of G20 include: Australia, India, Argentina, France, China, Canada, Russia, Germany, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Mexico, Italy, Japan, US, Turkey, Britain and South Korea.

The illusion that Greece can go forward through this oxymoron constitutes the SYRIZA vote.

Traditionally, the European left rhetoric in Greece has been more left than about Europe. Pure leftish arguments that most Greeks loathe in terms of their consequences on the real economy and people’s individualism have been the main reason Tsipras’ party remained for nearly a decade close to the 3% Parliament threshold, marking in a few votes the difference between political obscurity and House representation.

Dissatisfied, indignant Greek voters were up for grabs throughout the last two years, coming from different political parties, sharing the same anti-MoU feeling. SYRIZA leader managed to utilise a clever strategy, adopting centre-left arguments that sounded positive even to ND voters who were orphaned when Samaras vehemently shifted towards the right. On the 6th of May 37% of PASOK and 13% of ND voters subscribed to Tsipras’ rhetoric, once again proving that in Greece, voters do not pay attention to programmatic documents and political intentions. Admittedly so, no one ever imagined that SYRIZA could turn into a government partner.

A series of factors led to the destruction of the centre-right. The damage for ND began when party leadership decided to vote against the first MoU in 2010, alienating the centrist vote, instead of staying in the pragmatist side of politics, pushing for changes and innovative, reformist alternatives, especially when George Papandreou adopted the easy way out, namely milking salary earners and pensioners.

Instead of staying in the game, dealing with hardcore politics, ND leadership ordered party people to hit the streets, miserably antagonizing leftist unionists who used to rally for a living. The lack of mainstream political agenda left the centre-right with no alternative than to start pushing for snap elections through nihilism and imitations of leftish activism tactics. A few years later, when PASOK and George Papandreou succumbed to the huge social and political pressure and Lucas Papademos took over, ND had to give in and sign the MoU II, to avoid taking the blame for the country’s collapse. Then, after the expulsion of a group of MPs who remained hooked to the populist view, to massage their constituencies, the party lost the popular vote that followed Panos Kammenos in a daring, albeit fruitless quest towards the patriotic right. On May 6, ND reached the bottom of the centre-right dynamics, in a down-curve that began from 45.3% in 2004, to 41.8% in 2007, down to 33.5% in 2009 to a humiliating 18.8% in 2012.

PASOK, on the other hand is trying to survive the 13.2% result (from almost 44% in 2009), putting together all sorts of party casts, while pushing older executives to step down with decency. The centre-left party has suffered the Papandreou administration that failed to tame PASOK’s populist soul. However, what was not clearly foreseen back then was that after its victory against George, the populist mass was determined to seek for the next best roof in the socialist neighborhood, namely Alexis Tsipras.

This is not surprising, since PASOK has always been a formation of different people of unclear ideological background, united by their common thirst for power and the benefits that stemmed out of it.

In the prosperity years, generous budgets of all sorts kept everyone focused on the primary task, i.e. to maintain control of the state apparatus and burse. As soon as the money run out, the horde scattered, following separate roots. These days, SYRIZA leadership is the next best option that resembles the old, populist PASOK; even some of the old Andreas Papandreou’s charisma, some say. At the same time, SYRIZA is the only harbor for those who continue to see the state as a milking cow.

Considering also that, despite the drama, Greece is still at the beginning of a long reformist journey, statists opposing this path like to think they have a chance to stop it. They are assisted by a significant number of middle and lower class households, which are hit by the austerity measures and hope to minimize their losses, by scraping the MoU recipe.

Most of the aforementioned groups see their degrading -and to a great extent corrupted- fields of work, or protected professions or black economy transactions gravely threatened by the reform process.

On June 17, the same groups are preparing to vote against their future. In the minds of Europeans, this is a mindless vote. But for those who understand the Greek psyche, it is a last attempt to rescue an old, degraded and widely spread micro world, seconds before its violent descent down the steepest cliff of the country’s modern economic history.

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of AlYunaniya.com

Obviously, Samaras, Venizelos and Kouvelis needed no fortunetellers to forecast the glorious years Tsipras would have in front of him being in the main opposition, while the aforementioned trio would be consumed by the additional measures included in the second MoU. There would be no political peace, the left reaction would surge and soon the country would found itself once again in a dead-end.

Bottom line this is politics in Greece, especially when a weak 3-party coalition in the MoU years equals to almost the same (or less) power a strong party used to have in the years of prosperity.

So, what is going to be? Which approach is more suitable to describe the future of local politics? Is Greek electorate following the canoe paradigm, or we are in front of a SYRIZA sailboat effect, as a diplomat put in a recent gathering. Will things balance again after a strong sideward movement or Tsipras will become the youngest prime minister in Europe?

I used to argue that current gen of politicians is equally problematic as the one their mentors belonged to. So, a new leader in his thirties could make a difference. But again, in the case of Greece, new leadership should not emerge from the left. Not at the moment. The country cannot afford sailing the Left boat in unmarked waters. We need a coalition of the willing and a period of careful planning and courageous implementation of structural changes and wider modernisation moves to put our house in order.

All these are at stake once again in June 17. My view is that given the circumstances and the severe damages PASOK has suffered in May, the only anti-SYRIZA force could emerge from the centre-right that would cooperate with Venizelos’ party (a new name and branding strategy remain a possibility), use a new liberal centrist force as a glue (Drasi with Re-Create Greece) and keep Democratic Left as a backup plan for the future. Moreover, some Kammenos’ MPs could possibly return to ND nest, offering their support in a coalition, or as soon as the government puzzle is solved.

However, for the time being, the call for unity in the centre-right lacks the required dynamism as well as touch to society, since it focuses on Dora Bakoyannis’ and some LAOS’ MPs return, two moves that symbolically are reciprocally neutralized. Uniting the centre-right per se does not seem relevant to Greek people; especially when the country’s obligations to the MoU will lead to the introduction of 6 more tax hikes in the next few months, some of them -regrettably- arriving through the post before June 17.

What perhaps would be relevant to Greeks is a constructive approach to their problems, old and new, an ability SYRIZA lacks by default.

The majority of Greek citizens are looking for a rationale to avoid voting for Alexis; but old leaderships do almost nothing to give them a reason not to.

Dr. Demetris Kamaras is the Editor of AlYunaniya.com