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Posted on: June 16th, 2012 No Comments

A forecast for June 17 Greek elections

Ioannis Kamaras
Ioannis Kamaras

Based on the table below, a forecast is made for New Democracy to get a percentage around 32% (143 MPs), followed by SYRIZA with 23% (68 MPs). PASOK is estimated to get around 10.5% (30 MPs).

The forecast is based on the assumption that New Democracy (Samaras) will increase its electorate by around 1 million voters, receiving votes from a decrease in abstinence, and inflows from Independent Greeks (Kammenos) and Golden Dawn (Mihaloliakos) parties, as well as other minor parties, whose voters moved towards ND, i.e. Democratic Alliance (Dora Bakoyannis), Drasi (Manos) and Re-Create Greece (Tzimeros).

As regards SYRIZA (Tsipras), it will see an increase in its electorate power that will remain under 550,000 people, as compared with May results.


Ioannis Kamaras (PhD Economics, Sussex University) is a former Director, Bank of Greece. In the late 1990s, he served as a Commissioner of the -then- Bank of Crete, during the Koskotas scandal. 


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